Stanislaw Raczynski, Universidad Panamericana, Mexico

Abstract: The spread of epidemics over a landscape of several population agglomerations is presented. A continuous, system dynamics version of an epidemics model is discussed and compared to the agent-based model. The validity of the continuous Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SIRS) model is questioned. The main model deficiencies are the lack of the influence of the collective memory of the population and the spatial distribution of individuals. The chaotic behavior of the agent-based model is pointed out as a better approximation of the true dynamics of an epidemic.

Keywords: epidemics, agent-based model, simulation, SIR model