| Nonlinear Dynamics, Psychology, and Life Sciences, Vol. 18, Iss. 4, Oct, 2014, pp. 397-417 @2014 Society for Chaos Theory in Psychology & Life Sciences Uncertainty in Cost Performance as a Function of the Cusp Catastrophe in the NASA Program Performance Management System Abstract: Cost performance by NASA programs can generate two stable states within the organization system
used for program performance management. These states could be stable individually or show multistability
with cusp-like behavior. To test this, we constructed a cusp catastrophe model in a multilevel modeling (HLM) procedure
on the cost components of an eleven-month period of one NASA program. HLM was used for its ability to
estimate random effects as replacements for unknown control parameters. The cusp catastrophe model was
a good description of the data and there was some evidence that the overall budget size functioned as a
control parameter. Results are presented in terms of three different forms of uncertainty: attractor strength,
unistability or multistability, and control parameters. Recommendations and future directions are
focused towards understanding the cause of uncertainty in complex management systems. Keywords: cusp catastrophe, multilevel model, performance management system, cost performance, uncertainty |