| Nonlinear Dynamics, Psychology, and Life Sciences, Vol. 18, Iss. 1, Jan, 2014, pp. 91-108 @2014 Society for Chaos Theory in Psychology & Life Sciences A Dynamic Nonlinear Model for Educational Systems: A Simulation Study for Primary Education Abstract: This article improves our understanding of the causal processes driving the
dynamic behavior of education systems using a System Dynamics approach. The model
presented here has three state variables: Population, Population in Primary School, and
Primary School Graduates whose values are calibrated for the case of Nicaragua. It also
includes nonlinear complex interactions between critical factors, e.g., the state of the
economy, the state of the education system, and population literacy that affect the
system s transition rates -intake, repetition, dropout, and promotion- which therefore
influence the dynamics of schooling outcomes. These schooling outcomes in turn affect population literacy
and economic progress in the country thus generating aggregate patterns that
continuously change (and are changed by) the inputs that endogenously determine them,
which could potentially explain why educational systems exhibit persistently good or bad outcomes.
Simulation runs show a strong correspondence with observed data and additionally the model provides
meaningful insights to guide policy making in educational reform, such as the ability to reveal the
presence of 'ghost students'. This paper concludes that complex dynamic systems modeling and simulation
can facilitate forecasting of school system behavior and the detection of policy inconsistencies,
something conventional modeling cannot do. Keywords: feedback, complexity, nonlinearities, computer simulation, forecasting |