| Nonlinear Dynamics, Psychology, and Life Sciences, Vol. 14, Iss. 4, Oct, 2010, pp. 491-509 @2010 Society for Chaos Theory in Psychology & Life Sciences Modeling Early Sexual Initiation among Young Adolescents Using Quantum and Continuous Behavior Change Methods: Implications for HIV Prevention Abstract: Behavioral research and prevention intervention science efforts have largely been
based on hypotheses of linear or rational behavior change. Additional advances in the field
may result from the integration of quantum behavior change and catastrophe models. Longitudinal
data from a randomized trial for 1241 pre-adolescents 9-12 years old who self-described as
virgin were analyzed. Data for 469 virgins in the control group were included for linear
and cusp catastrophe models to describe sexual initiation; data for the rest in the intervention
group were added for program effect assessment. Self-reported likelihood to have sex was
positively associated with actual initiation of sex (OR=1.72, 95% CI: 1.43-2.06, R2 = 0.13).
Receipt of a behavioral prevention intervention based on a cognitive model prevented
15.6% (33.0% vs. 48.6%, OR = 0.52, 95% CI: 0.24-1.11) of the participants from initiating
sex among only those who reported 'very likely to have sex.' The beta coefficients for the
cubic term of the usp assessing three bifurcating variables (planning to have sex, intrinsic
rewards from sex and self-efficacy for abstinence) were 0.0726, 0.1116 an intervention based
on a model of continuous behavior change did produce a modest impact on sexual initiation, quantum
change has contributed more than continuous change in describing sexual initiation among young
adolescents, suggesting the need for quantum change and chaotic models to advance behavioral
prevention of HIV/AIDS. Keywords: quantum behavior change, cusp catastrophe model, sexual risk behavior, adolescents, HIV prevention |