| Nonlinear Dynamics, Psychology, and Life Sciences, Vol. 11, Iss. 4, Oct, 2007, pp. 451-472 @2007 Society for Chaos Theory in Psychology & Life Sciences Nonlinear Dynamics and Probabilistic Behavior of Adolescent Suicidal Outbreaks Abstract: There is increasing evidence of suicide contagion among
teenagers. This phenomenon is further exacerbated by the availability
of long-range communication channels like the Internet. The aim of
this work is to develop a quantitative model linking contagion to
the nonlinear dynamics underlying the imitation phenomena at work;
to explore different scenarios and predict trends to be expected;
and to propose prevention strategies. To this end, the methods of
population dynamics and epidemiology are augmented by incorporating
individual variability by means of Monte Carlo simulation. It is shown
that contagion may take an explosive form which is dramatically
accelerated in the presence of long-range interactions. Situations
of undecidability can also be reached. The relevant time scales are
identified and linked to two fundamental parameters. Applications in
prevention in hospital, in school and in use of Internet are outlined.
It is suggested that interpretations of surveys based on purely random
scenarios need to be reassessed. Keywords: cooperation, Monte Carlo simulation, suicide, contagion, logistic equation |